• Independent analysis for Crisis Scotland by Heriot-Watt University models ten policy interventions and finds a comprehensive package could cut the most severe homelessness by 47% by 2028
• Charity says the evidence is clear and the legal powers are in place, but political leadership is needed to close the gap between aspiration and delivery
• Full implementation of Scotland’s incoming homelessness prevention duties is among the most powerful levers available, and could cut core homelessness by 13% by 2028 and 16% by 2041
• Research warns that without a more ambitious policy and implementation agenda now, Scotland’s current unacceptable levels of homelessness will persist for the next 15 years

The worst forms of homelessness could be cut by nearly half within this parliamentary term, according to major new research published today be the homelessness charity Crisis Scotland.  

This finding made in the Homelessness Monitor: Scotland, led by Herriot-Watt University, looked at the effect of ten policy levers on homelessness in Scotland and modelled results to 2041. The conclusion finds that it is possible to reduce core homelessness in Scotland significantly in this parliamentary term.  

If current powers were used fully the modelling shows that severe homelessness could be reduced from current numbers of 22,800 to around 12,150 by 2028 a reduction of 47%.  

Whilst the research provides the positive outlook that action can deliver significant reductions, the research also contains a stark warning. That maintaining the status quo will see the number of households in core homelessness remain stubbornly high through to 2041.

The prevention duties in the Housing (Scotland) Act 2025 are an important step forward, and as this report shows, their effective implementation is among the most powerful levers available. Without bold action from government to use the new duties to fundamentally transform the homeless system, alongside wider action on housing access and support, the numbers will remain high.
 
That is a significant warning given the situation the Monitor reports on the ground. On any given night around 1,000 people are estimated to be sleeping rough in Scotland, more than double the low point reached during the pandemic. Temporary accommodation has hit a historic high, with the latest official figures showing 19,004 households in temporary accommodation. Around a third of Scotland's 32 councils are in or at heightened risk of systemic failure in meeting their statutory duties. 

Around three quarters of the total reduction could be delivered using powers already held by local authorities, housing associations, local partners and the Scottish Government. 

The levers with the greatest impact are focused on improving the volume and accessibility of suitable housing, and ensuring the necessary support is available to households when they need it, before they become homeless.  

Note: Full detail on all ten levers modelled, including their projected impact, is set out in the notes below. 

Taken together, increasing the allocation of social homes to homeless households and  effective implementation of the new prevention duties alongside fuller use of existing powers alone would cut core homelessness by a third by 2028. 

This is a delivery gap rather than a legislative one. With the political will to implement new and existing policies effectively, the modelling shows that by 2031 unsuitable temporary accommodation would fall by 88%, hostel use by 66% and rough sleeping by 63%, with further reductions to follow.

Crisis Scotland is calling on the Scottish Government to publish a costed delivery plan on the policy levers identified, and to prioritise fully funding the implementation of the incoming homelessness prevention Ask and Act duties in the upcoming budget.  
 
Maeve McGoldrick, Head of Policy and Communications at Crisis Scotland, said:  

“This report makes it clear that ending homelessness for everyone is down to political choices. We can make significant strides towards this goal in a short space of time, if the will is there.   

“We cannot continue to see a thousand people sleeping rough on an average night, record numbers stuck in temporary accommodation for eight months at a time, councils breaching the law on B&B stays 8,000 times and turning people away 4,900 times in a single quarter, because they have nowhere to put them. That is the system as it stands.” 

“In one path, the worst forms of homelessness are halved within the next 5 years. Rough sleeping cut by nearly two thirds. Unsuitable temporary accommodation is all but ended. In the other, we hold the current course, and the numbers remain where they are at today, come 2040. 

“The important challenge to politicians is how much a future Scotland, free from homelessness, is already within their gift. This is not a future bill to be passed, or a decision to be taken by Westminster, but for Scottish Government to use the powers it already has and to be effective. This means to wholeheartedly embrace homelessness prevention and place housing stability at the heart of public service reform. This is new, world leading legal framework for prevention, already passed into law, is a potential game changer for Scotland’s public services. For Scottish Government to make a success out of it, a robust delivery plan, resource and most importantly, political will is needed.  

"So, our ask of Scottish Government is this: prioritise delivering the policy levers in this report, and fully fund the prevention Ask and Act duties in the upcoming budget. Homelessness in Scotland should be rare, brief and never repeated. This research shows us what that would take." 

Professor Beth Watts-Cobbe of Heriot-Watt University, the report's lead author, said: "We have been tracking homelessness in Scotland for fifteen years. Our modelling clearly shows this specific policy actions required to reduce the most severe forms of homelessness in Scotland. A comprehensive package of the measures would reduce core homelessness by around 47% by 2028 and 55% by 2036, with the sharpest effects on rough sleeping and on unsuitable temporary accommodation. 

"Two findings are worth highlighting. The first is that some of the largest contributions to reducing homelessness come from measures within the control of local authorities, housing associations and the Scottish Government rather than the UK Government, these being effective implementation of recent prevention legislation and boosting the allocation of social homes to core homeless households.  The second concerns the baseline. With no change to current policy our projections show core homelessness in Scotland essentially flat for the next fifteen years. Inaction is not neutral. It is a decision and an outcome we can and should avoid." 

Media contact

Paul McGarry, Media and Public Affairs Manager, Crisis Scotland

07825 229 337 – paul.mcgarry@crisis.org.uk

Spokespeople, including frontline colleagues, are available for interview by arrangement.

Notes to editors

1. The policy levers in detail. The levers with the greatest impact all sit within Scotland’s devolved powers:

Direct allocation of social housing: allocating up to one in five social lets to people experiencing the worst forms of homelessness. This is the single most effective lever tested, reducing core homelessness by 19%.

Full delivery of prevention: using existing powers alongside the new Ask and Act duties in the Housing (Scotland) Act 2025 could reduce core homelessness by 13% by 2028 and 16% by 2041.

Housing First: trebling provision over a decade, with wraparound support for people with the most complex needs. Would see a 5% in the short term and 10% by 2041 reduction in core homelessness.

Targeted housing supply: delivering 6,600 social homes a year in the areas with the greatest shortfall against need. Worth 3%, with the report finding that where homes are built matters as much as how many.

2. Levers held at Westminster. The remaining levers sit with the UK Government, through social security and the wider economy. A larger package of benefit reform would cut core homelessness by 9% in the short term, measures aimed at destitution and the operation of Universal Credit by a further 5%, and restoring Local Housing Allowance to the 30th percentile of local rents and indexing it to inflation by nearly 6%.
3. The ten policy levers modelled. Each lever was modelled individually against a baseline of current policy. Figures show the reduction in core homelessness each would deliver on its own. They do not add up to the 47% total, because the levers overlap in effect.

Lever	Who delivers	What it does in brief	2028	2041
Direct social housing allocation	Councils and housing associations	Allocate up to 20% of net social lettings to people in the worst forms of homelessness	18.9%	18.7%
Full prevention	Councils, housing associations and other public bodies	Fuller use of existing prevention, plus the six month duty and Ask and Act duties in the Housing (Scotland) Act 2025	13.4%	16.3%
Larger benefit package	DWP and Social Security Scotland	Higher Universal Credit allowances, fewer sanctions, sustained employment support	8.9%	8.8%
Index Local Housing Allowance	DWP	Restore to the 30th percentile of local rents and index annually to inflation	5.7%	2.3%
Destitution and Universal Credit measures	DWP	Restore the £20 uplift, end the five week wait, curb debt deductions	5.3%	7.4%
Housing First	Councils and housing associations	Treble provision over a decade, with intensive support and reduced hostel use	4.7%	10.3%
Targeted housing supply	Councils, housing associations and Scottish Government	6,600 social completions a year, concentrated where need is greatest	3.1%	3.3%
Regional balance	HM Treasury and Scottish Government	Narrow the growth gap between London and the South East and the rest of Great Britain	4.0%	20.3%
Higher economic growth	HM Treasury	Raise UK GDP growth from 1.7% to 2.6% and productivity growth from 1.25% to 1.5%	1.2%	14.4%
Very high housing supply	Councils, housing associations and Scottish Government	30,400 homes a year including 8,500 social, less geographically targeted	2.8%	No net effect

 

4. Core homelessness. Core homelessness captures the most acute forms of homelessness, including rough sleeping; sleeping in cars, tents and public transport; squatting; staying in hostels, refuges and unsuitable temporary accommodation such as B&Bs; and sofa surfing.
5. The Homelessness Monitor. The Homelessness Monitor is an independent longitudinal study of homelessness in Scotland, commissioned by Crisis and produced by researchers at the Institute of Social Policy, Housing and Equalities Research (I-SPHERE), Heriot-Watt University.
6. Crisis Scotland’s campaign to end homelessness by 2040. Crisis Scotland is campaigning to end homelessness in Scotland by 2040. This means working with the Scottish Government, local authorities and partners across the country to place prevention at the heart of the response, so that homelessness is rare, brief and never repeated.