The annual Homelessness Monitor report, published by Crisis, has been tracking the homelessness impacts of policy and economic change across the UK since 2011 and the latest brings fresh evidence of these challenges.

It warns about the impacts of ongoing welfare reforms, the freeze on Local Housing Allowance (LHA) rates and the limited capacity in the social rented sector to provide viable housing solutions for people locked out of the private market.

English councils face significant barriers to meeting the housing needs of vulnerable and low income households who are at increased risk of homelessness as they struggle to resolve their situations without some form of assistance from the authorities. And this is worsened by affordable housing supply issues and rising private sector rents.

The monitor provides a balanced analysis of the official (DCLG) homelessness figures alongside responses to their local authority survey. According to the official statistics almost half of English councils recorded an increase in demand for 2016. But this significantly understates their true experiences, with 92 per cent reporting either an increase or significant increase in footfall to their homelessness services. This discrepancy is most likely a result of local authorities shifting their practices to more non-statutory prevention approaches and because of funding constraints limiting local authorities’ homelessness service capacity.

Housing market pressures and increased welfare restrictions are leaving their mark across all potential homelessness indicators. Rough sleeping continues to rise, with the total estimated to be sleeping rough on any one night in England increasing by 52 per cent in just two years.

There has also been a sharp rise in the number of households being placed into temporary accommodation (TA) and it is clear councils are finding it increasingly difficult to source cost-effective solutions without relying on inappropriate bed and breakfast accommodation for households with children. Meanwhile households are increasingly being placed out of their local authority area – 28 per cent of the national TA total (mainly involving London) in 2016 compared with 11 per cent five year ago.

Behind these figures are some very challenging structural factors which are making it increasingly difficult for people to avoid homelessness. Yet again the monitor shares repeated concerns over the growing gap between LHA rates and actual private sector rents, the ongoing rollout of universal credit and the shrinking supply of genuinely affordable housing caused by policies that skew investment towards the private market.

Councils are also reporting growing concern about the uncertainty around supported accommodation funding and the 1% rent reduction – unsurprising considering that overall council spending on services that impact on local efforts to tackle homelessness has nearly halved since 2010 (in real terms) compared with a 13 per cent increase in central government spending on homelessness.

Meanwhile social sector new builds and lettings are at a historic low and councils are increasingly forced to look to the private rented sector (PRS) to prevent homelessness and as a solution for homeless households. But loss of PRS tenancies continues to be the single biggest cause of homelessness among acceptances – growing from 11 per cent in 2009/10 to 31 per cent of all cases in 2015/16. And private tenancies featuring as a successful prevention outcome has dropped by 30 per cent since 2009/10.

At a time when the PRS and rents continue to grow, incomes are stagnating. With a limited supply of genuinely affordable products, housing need is rising but decent affordable options are out of reach for those that need them the most.

This is particularly true for young people. The shared accommodation rate (SAR) of LHA is already significantly out of step with actual market rents in many areas and as we see the same rates applied to tenants in the social rented sector, more and more single people aged under 35 are going to find it almost impossible to find and keep a decent home they can afford.

Young people living outside of the family home are already at a disproportionate risk of poverty because of unemployment, reduced benefit entitlement and rising PRS rents and young people are still at higher risk of homelessness than older adults.

 Change is on the horizon however. The Homelessness Reduction Bill will offer single people and childless couples more of a chance of avoiding homelessness because they will get access to more meaningful help. But it’s difficult to see how lasting change will be realised against a backdrop of stubborn housing and welfare policies that risk undermining the bill.

Despite this, if enacted it represents a fantastic opportunity to replicate some of the positive cultural shifts coming from the implementation of a similar measure in Wales. Considered in this year’s monitor, it is accepted that while the bill will not fix the major challenges local authorities and their partners face ‘placing prevention work on a firmer statutory footing is widely felt to be an important ‘protective’ step as local budgets are squeezed ever tighter’.

We are yet to witness the true extent of the reduced benefit cap and the roll out of universal credit is ongoing. The government has committed to ‘modestly increase’ affordable housing supply and to give providers a degree of flexibility over which tenures to spend declining levels of grant funding on and the Homelessness Reduction Bill has received government and cross-party support. Both these moves provide reassuring signs that we may be witnessing a crucial shift in government thinking.

This suggests that further progression is possible. I hope the next Homelessness Monitor reinforces this optimism.